Giants (+3.5) The 49ers have a great pass rush that typically forces QBs to make bad mistakes or matador sacks leading to more yards to keep drives alive . The thing is, Eli typically gets the ball out quickly and had a ton of practice against New England. If the Giants go up, do you think Alex Smith is going to beat them? You couple that with the "Eli rule" and this is an easier pick.
Eli Rule: Eli plays well when he gets more than 3 and awful when he gives more than three.
Pats (+1.5) Tom Brady played awful. The Pats defense was horrendous in the second half. All that and the Giants still needed a 2 minute drill to beat them. Tom isn't making those mistakes again, and I don't see Sanchez matching him.
Steelers (-3) The Bengals are the home team but the Steelers travel really well and there should be some Terrible Towel sightings. The Steelers are also sore after a tough loss and look to beat up on the Ginger Kid, Andy Dalton.
Chiefs (-3) If Tebow wins in the Black Hole and in Arrowhead on consecutive weeks, I'll be at church next Sunday. The Chiefs aren't going to stand for back to back beatdowns at home.
Jags (-3) You come off a bye week and you get to play the Colts. The Jags should send the schedule makers a nice Christmas gift.
Bills (+6) So we're down on the Bills after losing to a good defensive team that needed a win and up on the Cowboys after beating a bad team that they let hang around? Take the points.
Bucs (+3) The Texans have taken advantage of bad teams in a big way. Going on the road against a team that gets up for home games is a bit different than playing the likes of the Browns. Take the points.
Panthers (-2.5) The most exciting player on the field isn't Chris Johnson and isn't a Titan. The Titans just look more flat every week since losing Britt and Chris Johnson (the latter suits up, but he'd be better off faking an injury and letting Runger take the carries). Cam rarely wins, but you have to think Tennessee will roll over and let Cam do what he does.
Dolphins (-4.5) - Matt Moore versus John Beck. The Dolphins throw screen passes well and play decent defense. The Redskins do just about nothing well.
Falcons (PK) The Saints are just bad on the road and the Falcons are a solid home team.
Lions (+3) Okay Lions, you want to be taken seriously? Start by winning on the road in November. The Bears are coming off of a big win, on the road, and had a short week to prepare for a Lions team fresh off of a bye. Fat Boy Suh should be able to hit Cutler a few times and I find it hard to see how the Bears will keep up with the Lions' speed on tired legs.
Rams (+3) The rams can run and the passing offense looks better since the addition of Brandon Lloyd. What do the Browns do well?
Cards (+13) The Eagles win this game, but I refuse to lay 13+ points with a team that can't close games well. This feels like a back door cover.
Seahawks (+7) I'm chalking up Flacco's performance to getting up for the Steelers. I think he goes back to bad Flacco this week and we see the Hawks' defense keeping them in the game.
Vikings (+13.5) The Packers are the best team in football. Aaron Rodgers is playing incredible football and as a result, the defense plays super aggressive football and as a result, gives up a lot of big plays. A few big plays from "All Day" and a deep play or two from Ponder should keep this game within two TD's.
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